The European Labour Market Barometer signals a turnaround, standing at 101.1 points in February after rising for the second time in a row – an increase of 0.6 points compared to January.
The prospects for the European labour markets have clearly improved since the beginning of the year
reports Enzo Weber, IAB head of forecast. The unemployment component of the labour market leading indicator of the European Network of Public Employment Services and the IAB rises by 0.7 points and, at 99.9 points, approaches the neutral mark of 100 points. Therefore, no further rise in unemployment is expected. The employment component climbs 0.5 points to 102.3 points, which clearly signifies a positive outlook.
The European Labour Market Barometer is a monthly leading indicator based on a survey of the local or regional employment agencies in 18 participating public employment services. The survey has been carried out jointly by the employment services and the IAB since June 2018. The participating countries include Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Belgium-DG, Belgium-Flanders, Germany, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland and Belgium-Wallonia. While component A of the barometer signals the development of the seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for the next three months, component B forecasts employment trends. The average of the components “unemployment” and “employment” constitutes the total value of the barometer. This indicator thus provides an outlook on the overall development of the labour market. The scale ranges from 90 (very poor development) to 110 (very good development). First, a barometer score for each of the participating employment services is determined. The European barometer is then derived from these national scores in the form of a weighted average.
The time series of the European Labour Market Barometer, including its components for all 18 participating employment services, is available at www.iab.de/Presse/elmb-components. More information on the European Labour Market Barometer is available in our Magazine IAB-Forum: Launch of the “European Labour Market Barometer”