The European Labour Market Barometer fell for the sixth time in a row in October. The labour market leading indicator of the European Network of Public Employment Services and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) dropped 0.3 points compared to September and now lies below the neutral mark of 100 points at 99.7 points.
The European labour markets won’t fold, but the only time the prospects have been weaker was at the height of the COVID-19 crisis
says Enzo Weber, IAB head of forecast. While most countries record a downturn, some Eastern European countries show a slight recovery of the Barometer compared to the previous month.
With a loss of 0.1 points, the component for the unemployment forecast currently stands at the level of 98.2 points, which indicates rising unemployment in the European countries. The component for the employment forecast fell by 0.6 points to 101.2 points, but therefore continues to remain in the positive zone.
The immigration of Ukrainian refugees in many European countries is boosting the labour force potential overnight and therefore, for the moment, unemployment, but also employment – albeit with more of a delay
The European Labour Market Barometer is a monthly leading indicator based on a survey of the local or regional employment agencies in 18 participating public employment services. The survey has been carried out jointly by the employment services and the IAB since June 2018. The participating countries include Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Belgium-DG, Belgium-Flanders, Germany, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Sweden (since September 2022), Switzerland and Belgium-Wallonia. While component A of the barometer signals the development of the seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for the next three months, component B forecasts employment trends. The average of the components “unemployment” and “employment” constitutes the total value of the barometer. This indicator thus provides an outlook on the overall development of the labour market. The scale ranges from 90 (very poor development) to 110 (very good development). First, a barometer score for each of the participating employment services is determined. The European barometer is then derived from these national scores in the form of a weighted average.
The time series of the European Labour Market Barometer, including its components for all 17 participating employment services, is available at www.iab.de/Presse/elmb-components. More information on the European Labour Market Barometer is available in our Magazine IAB-Forum: Launch of the “European Labour Market Barometer”