The European Labour Market Barometer fell by 0.9 points in September compared with August and now stands exactly at the neutral mark of 100 points. The labour market leading indicator of the European Network of Public Employment Services and the Institute of Employment Research (IAB) thus registers its fifth decline in a row.
Labour shortage meets energy crisis. The booming labour market is getting a damper
reports Enzo Weber, IAB head of forecast. In all participating Eastern European countries, the barometer even stands significantly worse – here, the effects of the Russian war against Ukraine are especially noticeable.
The sub-indicator for the development of seasonally adjusted unemployment figures decreased by 1.0 point and currently stands at 98.3 points, indicating rising unemployment in European countries. The sub-indicator for employment fell by 0.7 points to 101.7 points, but remains in positive territory. Employment will hence continue to rise, but at a slower pace than before.
Refugee immigration has increased unemployment, but it also generates additional employment potential
The European Labour Market Barometer is a monthly leading indicator based on a survey of the local or regional employment agencies in 18 participating public employment services. The survey has been carried out jointly by the employment services and the IAB since June 2018. The participating countries include Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Belgium-DG, Belgium-Flanders, Germany, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Sweden (since September 2022), Switzerland and Belgium-Wallonia. While component A of the barometer signals the development of the seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for the next three months, component B forecasts employment trends. The average of the components “unemployment” and “employment” constitutes the total value of the barometer. This indicator thus provides an outlook on the overall development of the labour market. The scale ranges from 90 (very poor development) to 110 (very good development). First, a barometer score for each of the participating employment services is determined. The European barometer is then derived from these national scores in the form of a weighted average.
The time series of the European Labour Market Barometer, including its components for all 17 participating employment services, is available at www.iab.de/Presse/elmb-components. More information on the European Labour Market Barometer is available in our Magazine IAB-Forum: Launch of the “European Labour Market Barometer”