The European Labour Market Barometer fell again in July. The labour market leading indicator of the European Network of Public Employment Services and the IAB dropped by 1.1 points compared to June, but continues to remain at a good level at 101.9 points. A possible halt in gas supplies poses a further risk.
With a drop of 1.5 points to the current level of 100.2 points, the components of the unemployment forecast showed a stronger decline than the components indicating the development of employment, which lost 0.7 points and stands at 103.5 points in July.
The European employment services still see the outlook for employment as good, but the effects of the war are becoming more noticeable
reports Enzo Weber, IAB head of forecast.
Several countries recorded a clear decline in the unemployment component, including Denmark, Germany, Belgium-Wallonia, Bulgaria and Cyprus. In many countries this is most probably connected to the fact that Ukrainian refugees are now increasingly becoming integrated in the labour markets.
In the short term, the path to finding a job often leads through unemployment. But Europe’s labour markets offer employment opportunities for refugees from Ukraine
The European Labour Market Barometer is a monthly leading indicator based on a survey of the local or regional employment agencies in 17 participating public employment services. The survey has been carried out jointly by the employment services and the IAB since June 2018. The participating countries include Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Belgium-DG, Belgium-Flanders, Germany, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Switzerland and Belgium-Wallonia. While component A of the barometer signals the development of the seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for the next three months, component B forecasts employment trends. The average of the components “unemployment” and “employment” constitutes the total value of the barometer. This indicator thus provides an outlook on the overall development of the labour market. The scale ranges from 90 (very poor development) to 110 (very good development). First, a barometer score for each of the participating employment services is determined. The European barometer is then derived from these national scores in the form of a weighted average.
The time series of the European Labour Market Barometer, including its components for all 17 participating employment services, is available at www.iab.de/Presse/elmb-components. More information on the European Labour Market Barometer is available in our Magazine IAB-Forum: Launch of the “European Labour Market Barometer”