The European Labour Market Barometer took a downward turn in June 2022. The labour market leading indicator of the European Network of Public Employment Services and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) dropped 1.3 points compared to May, currently standing at 102.9 points. It still remains at a good level, however.
The assessments of the development of unemployment in June dropped 2 points to 101.5 points on the European Labour Market Barometer, thus showing a stronger decline than the component indicating the development of employment, which lost 0.6 points and now stands at 104.2 points.
It was primarily Germany, Switzerland, Belgium-Wallonia and Cyprus that registered a clear downturn. Nevertheless, the level of the European Labour Market Barometer still suggests that the development is good. In none of the participating countries did it slide below the neutral mark of 100.
The labour markets are holding up well, but Europe is feeling the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war and the global supply chain disruptions
reports Enzo Weber, IAB head of forecast. There is also the additional risk of a potential geopolitical expansion of the Russia-Ukraine war or a broad halt in energy supplies.
The European Labour Market Barometer is a monthly leading indicator based on a survey of the local or regional employment agencies in 17 participating public employment services. The survey has been carried out jointly by the employment services and the IAB since June 2018. The participating countries include Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Belgium-DG, Belgium-Flanders, Germany, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Switzerland and Belgium-Wallonia. While component A of the barometer signals the development of the seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for the next three months, component B forecasts employment trends. The average of the components “unemployment” and “employment” constitutes the total value of the barometer. This indicator thus provides an outlook on the overall development of the labour market. The scale ranges from 90 (very poor development) to 110 (very good development). First, a barometer score for each of the participating employment services is determined. The European barometer is then derived from these national scores in the form of a weighted average.
The time series of the European Labour Market Barometer, including its components for all 17 participating employment services, is available at www.iab.de/Presse/elmb-components. More information on the European Labour Market Barometer is available in our Magazine IAB-Forum: Launch of the “European Labour Market Barometer”